Analyzing companies is fairly straightforward. Finding companies to analyze is a different ballgame. In the U.S. alone, there are more than 10,000 publicly traded companies. With the power of the internet, we can now invest worldwide-bringing the number of available investment options to staggering proportions.
Let’s narrow it down a bit.
Hemel asked,
One of my challenges has been creating screens to filter stocks. What items would you consider for this? I can understand basic things like industry, size of company etc but what about other tech and non-tech indicators?
I also got an e-mail asking,
One question I had was how do you pick which stocks to do extra [due diligence] and run the value numbers. Do you do a scan or look into up or down sectors? Do you just pick a company out of the air and run the numbers?
The Non-Method To My Madness
I have a number of different ways depending on how I feel that day.
One day, I’ll look at my Morningstar list of all companies with positive free cash flow for the last ten years-about 450 companies. Sometimes I’ll head over to the MSN free stock screener and scan for companies with 15%+ growth in earnings for the past few years. I also like to look at the companies whose products I use: Research in Motion for my Blackberry, HP for my computer monitor, Dell for my computer, etc. or stores in which my wife or I shop (she can single-handedly increase a company’s owner earnings!)
I also check the NYSE and NASDAQ sites daily to see which companies have had the biggest daily drops. When a company plummets quickly, it’s usually because of bad Wall Street news. I like to check those stocks out because they may still be wonderful businesses that the stock market is overreacting to.
I don’t have a specific method to my madness. I try to find opportunity wherever I can.
Use The Tools They Give You
When running free stock screeners, you’ll have to play Wall Street’s game to generate an initial list of targets. By that I mean that you’ll have to use their criteria for searching: growing earnings, high returns on equity and invested capital, etc.
I generally start by setting all of the growth rates to 15% or greater. After I get through that list, I’ll run it again with 10% growth rates.
If using the Morningstar premium screener, scan for companies with positive free cash flow for at least 6 or 7 years-preferably ten years.
The Big Losers
When a stock drops 5%, 10%, 20% or more, it may be that Wall Street is overreacting to news that will otherwise not affect the future health of the company. A prime example (which I screwed up on) was Bankrate in 2004. I bought the company around $11 a share.
A few days later, near the end of October, Wall Street overreacted to a less-than-stellar earnings report and pushed the stock down 16% to as low as $9.20. Stupid me-I panicked with them, convincing myself that they knew something I didn’t. I sold for a one week 10% loss. I was thinking like a gambler, not a business owner.
Two years later, it was a $50 stock. (As an aside, that was the very last time I ever listened to Wall Street.)
Find Opportunities Everywhere
Unfortunately there is no secret list or magic screener that will identify the best businesses. To drive this home, we turn to investment stud Peter Lynch:
The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game.
Of course, don’t expect to run a screen, analyze a business, and run out and buy one today. Sometimes there are great companies on sale; sometimes you’ll sit on the sidelines, accumulating cash and waiting weeks, months, or even a year or two for an opportunity. As Buffett says,
You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing.
Remember: Finding a business worth buying is much more difficult than the act of buying. Turn over rocks-you’ll see a lot of grubs, worms, and dirt. Still, the very next rock may be sitting on a box of gold.
Filed under: How to Search for Opportunities
Related Stocks: RATE
Das ,try this screen- http://screen.finance.yahoo.com/fscr/us/launch.html
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hi everyone,
I decided to make a list of free stock screener’s which I think everyone could benefit from.
Sanjay Shetty’s List of Free Stock Screeners
Feel free to comment and add other screeners and I’ll add them out there.
Regards,
Sanjay Shetty
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Hi Joe,
During your time as an investor have you found any industries/sectors which are traditionally cash rich?
Regards,
Sanjay Shetty
I blog at: http://indiainvestor.wordpress.com/
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There are certainly some that are cash poor (e.g., auto manufacturers) – and you should avoid those at almost all costs. Forget the traditional thinking of industries, sectors, and capitalization rates. Look for great ideas everywhere – technology, steel, clown temp agencies. If you try and narrow it down before you even begin searching, you’ll miss a heck of a lot of good (or better) opportunities.
(And no, I have never invested in a clown temp agency. It just rolled off my fingertips and I left it.)
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Joe,
You mentioned above: “it may be that Wall Street is overreacting to news that will otherwise not affect the future health of the company”
Where’s the best place to look to understand what the news is that is affecting the stock?
Once you find that, what kind of things help you decide whether or not the news will badly affect the health of the company? Is it mostly intuition?
Somewhat related question: What sections of the company financial reports do you like to read to find out the important issues in a business? Reading the whole thing would be way too time consuming for me, not to mention I’d fall asleep in the process.
Thanks so much for all your awesome insight,
Howard
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You wrote that you search for stocks with growth rates greater than 15%, I have one question concerning that point. Doesn’t Wallstreet value stocks by assuming growth rates will continue that way? 15% is already a pretty good growth rates, thus it will be hard for the company to exceed wallstreet’s expected earnings growth, which would eventually result in a rise in the stock price. So I don’t really understand why you want a high growth rate as a primary criteria, can you explain this real quickly?
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Also, if you’re a premium Morningstar member, you can opt-in to receive emails about their newest 5-star picks. Although much more diligence is due in regards to your own analysis with these picks, there is usually a pretty good reason that they’ve graduated to 5 star status, and deserve a closer look. There are endless ways to come up with good ideas. When you come up with one, write it down and revisit it from time to time. Buffett will typically research a company that he finds he understands, and then makes a mental note of what price he would be willing to pay. Over the course of time, if the price is within his range, he’ll reassess the company’s business fundamentals to see if it’s still a good business, and then he’ll “bet big”.
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