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Berkshire Reports June Buys, Sells, and An Arbitrage Play

August 15, 2007  |  Joe Ponzio  |  about: / / /

Every three months, Buffett and Berkshire have to report their holdings to the SEC. Good news for us because we can see them for free. Click here for the report. Let’s see what Buffett is buying, selling, and arbitraging.

First The Sales

Berkshire sold out of H&R Block, Pier One Imports, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific. If you own any of these, now may be the time to review them. If the world’s greatest investor doesn’t want them, are you sure that you do? (Hey, if you have a reason to hold them, do so.)

Berkshire also reduced its positions in Ameriprise Financial (by 41%), Tyco International (by 37%), and Western Union (by 68%). I don’t know if these were meant to be permanent holdings, but they’re not anymore.

Now, The Additions

Buffett added to some of his existing positions. We know about Burlington Northern (added 13%), but he also increased his position by 59% in US Bancorp, more than tripled his Wellpoint holding, nearly quadrupled his investment in United Health Group, bought 72% more Wells Fargo (Berkshire now owns nearly 8% of it), added 5% more Procter & Gamble, tripled his investment in Sanofi Adventis, and increased his Johnson & Johnson holding by 9%.

The word on the street was that Berkshire was looking to make a major purchase/buy-out. The prime suspect was Procter & Gamble; however, the numbers seem to be pointing towards Wells Fargo. I won’t speak too soon about it, but he did buy another 3.2% of the entire company in the past three months.

New Holdings

New to Berkshire’s portfolio were 8.7 million shares of Bank of America and 2.8 million shares of Dow Jones & Company. I haven’t looked at Bank of America yet; but, the Dow Jones addition is very likely a merger arbitrage.

What Happens In Merger Arbitrage

Merger arbitrage is when you buy a company based on, well, a merger. When Company A offers to buy Company B for $20 a share, and Company B is selling for $15 a share, you can arbitrage the merger, buy Company B for $15, and sell it in the merger for $20-assuming the merger goes through (that’s the risk).

With the Dow Jones position, I assume Buffett is doing exactly that. Rupert Murdoch is buying Dow Jones & Company for $5.6 billion, or roughly $65 a share. Dow Jones’ market cap right now is $5.02 billion. Assuming the merger goes through, today’s purchasers of Dow Jones & Company stand to make $7 per share. Assuming it goes through in the next six months, that is a 24% average annual return.

Based on Buffett’s position, Berkshire stands to make nearly $19 million on the Dow Jones arbitrage.

Summing It Up

A little bit of action in the Berkshire portfolio. Of course, this all happened through June 30, 2007. With the market in such turmoil today, Buffett is likely on a spending spree. I guess we’ll know more in three months.

Joe Ponzio

By Joe Ponzio

August 15, 2007

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The Discussion
John
John
August 15, 2007 at 1:57pm

He bought Dow Jones in March, I believe, before Rupert came along

August 15, 2007 at 3:16pm

Hi John,

I just checked and the Dow Jones position wasn’t on this March 31, 2007 filing. I don’t know when he actually began acquiring it; but, it showed up for the first time on the June 30, 2007 filing.

quick
quick
August 21, 2007 at 2:05pm

How would you value AXP? It’s balance sheet on Morningstar looks different than other companies.

Thanks for the great info…

Cheers,

August 23, 2007 at 12:19am

I’ll post something about it soon. Companies in the financial services sector require a bit more work and are more confusing. That is probably why Morningstar hasn’t posted their cash flows yet.

Check back soon as a lot of people have e-mailed me this question so I have a ready answer.

Jerry Gunn
Jerry Gunn
November 16, 2007 at 11:16am

Any thoughts on UNH and WLP?

Michael
Michael
December 30, 2007 at 9:10pm

Joe,

I just got on your website and really enjoy your valuation examples. It’s nice to see some quantifiable examples of calculating intrinsic values. I was wondering if you had considered doing a quick valuation of Wells Fargo. This is a long time holding of Warren Buffett and he has recently added more to Berkshire Hathaway’s equity portfolio (per 9/30/07 10Q). Given it’s high ROE of about 19%, low PE of 11.5, and it’s recent dip in stock price down to $30 it appears to be a classic Buffett purchase.

I have looked at your valuations of Wal-Mart and Johnson & Johnson and would be interested to see a financial institution’s valuation. They don’t have the annual Cap Ex of a Johnson & Johnson and are a little different animal.

Thanks,

Michael

(MikeR)
(MikeR)
December 31, 2007 at 10:08pm

Michael,

Check out the Nov 7 entry, Robert Explains Financial Institution Valuation.

January 8, 2008 at 9:45pm

Michael, (MikeR) is right – check out this post.

Even though I run a financial institution, I generally find them very difficult to value.

Dave
Dave
March 31, 2008 at 10:08am

Indeed, he has been adding to Wellpoint and UNH. In the past few weeks these stocks have tanked. So, if one has the opportunity to acquire WLP at 60%(ish) of Buffet’s valuations and UNH @ 70%(ish) of Buffet’s valuation, a long term holder might benefit from letting Buffet’s valuations serve as a guide to acquiring a good company at an even further discount.

Jerry
Jerry
April 3, 2008 at 9:16pm

WLP and UNH surely did tank and may present a good opportunity. The only problem is possible health care reform. Last months Fortune maganzine had a nice spread on what the Dems and Reps plans are. I believe there is some risk involved in holding any health care provider stock in this political environment where both parties want change. By the way, I own both.

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