Comments on: Amylin II. Excuse The Sarcasm. http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/ Value Investing Blog Mon, 16 May 2011 10:55:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Alex MacKinnon http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-2205 Alex MacKinnon Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:58:11 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-2205 Joe, I know that this is an old post, but I just wanted to draw your attention to the closing stock price for AMLN today. $15.85. I'll continue to value businesses conservatively and intelligently. NOT speculatively. This is a prime example of what Ben Graham would have called a 'Speculative undertaking' and not an 'investment'. With good reason too! Thanks for all the posts Joe, they keep me sane in an INSANE market. -Alex Joe,

I know that this is an old post, but I just wanted to draw your attention to the closing stock price for AMLN today.

$15.85.

I’ll continue to value businesses conservatively and intelligently. NOT speculatively. This is a prime example of what Ben Graham would have called a ‘Speculative undertaking’ and not an ‘investment’.

With good reason too!

Thanks for all the posts Joe, they keep me sane in an INSANE market.

-Alex

]]> By: Joe Ponzio http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-1959 Joe Ponzio Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:39:39 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-1959 Thus, we say "F Wall Street" ☺ Thus, we say “F Wall Street” ☺

]]> By: Shrivathsa http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-1930 Shrivathsa Tue, 15 Jul 2008 21:42:19 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-1930 July 27, 2007, Amylin Stock price was $46.9, July 15, 2008, stock price is 25.33. If one had bought listening to Goldman Sachs, Fidelity and Eastbourne Actual Loss as of July 15, 2008 : 46%, (Annualized loss of 47%, accounting for the remaining 12 days) July 27, 2007, Amylin Stock price was $46.9,

July 15, 2008, stock price is 25.33.

If one had bought listening to Goldman Sachs, Fidelity and Eastbourne

Actual Loss as of July 15, 2008 : 46%, (Annualized loss of 47%, accounting for the remaining 12 days)

]]> By: Joe Ponzio http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-1751 Joe Ponzio Wed, 14 May 2008 05:37:53 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-1751 Vinay: The value of a business lies entirely in its future, regardless of what has happened in the past. Though the past can give us an indication of what the business can achieve under normal conditions, it can not tell us what the business will accomplish in the future. In the case of a company with negative cash flow, you have to ask: Will this trend continue? If so, for how long? Then what? Only a thorough analysis and understanding of the business will tell you that. Vinay: The value of a business lies entirely in its future, regardless of what has happened in the past. Though the past can give us an indication of what the business can achieve under normal conditions, it can not tell us what the business will accomplish in the future.

In the case of a company with negative cash flow, you have to ask: Will this trend continue? If so, for how long? Then what? Only a thorough analysis and understanding of the business will tell you that.

]]> By: vinay vaidya http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-1721 vinay vaidya Tue, 22 Apr 2008 23:25:31 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-1721 joe i sent u mail some time back --- did nt get ur reply can u pl guide and tell me as to how we can estimate the Free Cash Flows accurately in case of a company which has reported - ve earnings in couple of years in last 10 years ? do v just ignore them ?? pl reply vinay vaidya joe

i sent u mail some time back — did nt get ur reply

can u pl guide and tell me as to how we can estimate the Free Cash Flows accurately in case of a company which has reported – ve earnings in couple of years in last 10 years ?

do v just ignore them ??

pl reply

vinay vaidya

]]> By: Mark http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-1579 Mark Tue, 04 Mar 2008 04:47:19 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-1579 Wow, look at Amylin now! A convincing case for fundamentals if there ever was one, I think! I am becoming more of a value investor day by day! Wow, look at Amylin now! A convincing case for fundamentals if there ever was one, I think! I am becoming more of a value investor day by day!

]]> By: Sohrab Alborzian http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-948 Sohrab Alborzian Sun, 02 Dec 2007 12:47:51 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-948 you MAKE SOOOO MUCH SENSE!!!! And to ad to this bulletin, I gave a broker 20k to invest for me thinking that I am being wise because all of my other friends are spending any penny they earn. He puts me in a mutual fund that dips almost the minute he buys it. I come to learn that there are companies with such great financial stability and I am on the phone with him saying, "Why is a company like BIDU up 250% in ONE FREAKING YEAR and you have me in this 8% a year Mutual Fund?" He replies, "Just remember, the stock market is a marathon, not a race." I told him to close the account and send me the money, 3 weeks later I am managing my IRA and my 20k and I am up 33% in two months. KEEP UP THE GREAT COMMENTS BECAUSE THE TRUTH WILL ALWAYS PREVAIL! He called me a couple days ago because he just opened a big acct and wanted advice from little ol me! you MAKE SOOOO MUCH SENSE!!!! And to ad to this bulletin, I gave a broker 20k to invest for me thinking that I am being wise because all of my other friends are spending any penny they earn. He puts me in a mutual fund that dips almost the minute he buys it. I come to learn that there are companies with such great financial stability and I am on the phone with him saying, “Why is a company like BIDU up 250% in ONE FREAKING YEAR and you have me in this 8% a year Mutual Fund?” He replies, “Just remember, the stock market is a marathon, not a race.” I told him to close the account and send me the money, 3 weeks later I am managing my IRA and my 20k and I am up 33% in two months. KEEP UP THE GREAT COMMENTS BECAUSE THE TRUTH WILL ALWAYS PREVAIL! He called me a couple days ago because he just opened a big acct and wanted advice from little ol me!

]]> By: Joe Ponzio http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-444 Joe Ponzio Wed, 10 Oct 2007 05:57:36 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-444 Dead on, Steve. Uncertainty on Wall Street is our friend; uncertainty in our valuation is our foe. Dead on, Steve. Uncertainty on Wall Street is our friend; uncertainty in our valuation is our foe.

]]> By: Steve http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-434 Steve Tue, 09 Oct 2007 05:03:17 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-434 I do not believe that Joe is saying that the company that you "know" is a bad company he was saying that it he is unsure and uncertain about its current business and its prospects. Both of these can be bad because there are other companies that are more sure and more certain on what types of businesses they are and how they handle ups and downs of business cycles. I agree with the thinking that there are more understandable businesses out there and would be a better place for most people's money. I do not believe that Joe is saying that the company that you “know” is a bad company he was saying that it he is unsure and uncertain about its current business and its prospects. Both of these can be bad because there are other companies that are more sure and more certain on what types of businesses they are and how they handle ups and downs of business cycles. I agree with the thinking that there are more understandable businesses out there and would be a better place for most people’s money.

]]> By: Michael http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm/#comment-95 Michael Fri, 27 Jul 2007 15:21:42 +0000 http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/32-amylin-ii-excuse-the-sarcasm#comment-95 No, I am no analyst nor insider, but a regular guy, a pharmacist by profession, who likes to invest in what he knows after finding companies from various searches(message boards) and do my homework in search of the next DNA or AMGN. Sure not for everybody, and not for the faint of heart, and my motivation for that post yesterday was to defend the company/stock I love, not necessarily try to pump it up(did not think it would end up on yahoo). For a stock like Amylin, some of its future success does depend on its pipeline and no analyst nor major investor can guarantee that success, as there can be the smallest of risk from drug failure and competition that can hurt you, but even Amgen and Celgene face that. The lucrative potential for the small investor is to buy some of a company stock(up to their own risk level) before they sell billions not after the balance sheet looks like Amgen's imo. Also, Amylin did raise more money and does have 1.14 billion dollars on hand. A few other companies I like are Medares and Genvec, both of which are very risky, but have a lot of potential. Also, always diversify and do not put too much money in biotech(of course). And one more thing that makes me ill about competition from Jauvia(Merck's drug) that is a DPIV inhibitor not exactly the same and does not promote weight loss and not as effective as byetta, but have heard that many Merck reps are calling januvia 'an oral byetta' which is untrue....but it is difficult for Amylin to compete or go after every physician that Merck does(or after Merck legally) since Amylin is a much smaller company, and Lilly(who Amylin shares byetta 50/50 with) does not promote byetta that heavily in the U.S. either. Then again, no one expected byetta to do as well as it did thus far and has proven skeptics wrong and short sellers. Finally it is easy to highlight the risk with this stock and future drugs(like any company), but if you dig deep you will find that if any company can find blockbuster potential drugs and bring them to market, it is Amylin, and in my opinion, a pretty good bet! Do your due diligence! No, I am no analyst nor insider, but a regular guy, a pharmacist by profession, who likes to invest in what he knows after finding companies from various searches(message boards) and do my homework in search of the next DNA or AMGN. Sure not for everybody, and not for the faint of heart, and my motivation for that post yesterday was to defend the company/stock I love, not necessarily try to pump it up(did not think it would end up on yahoo). For a stock like Amylin, some of its future success does depend on its pipeline and no analyst nor major investor can guarantee that success, as there can be the smallest of risk from drug failure and competition that can hurt you, but even Amgen and Celgene face that. The lucrative potential for the small investor is to buy some of a company stock(up to their own risk level) before they sell billions not after the balance sheet looks like Amgen’s imo. Also, Amylin did raise more money and does have 1.14 billion dollars on hand. A few other companies I like are Medares and Genvec, both of which are very risky, but have a lot of potential. Also, always diversify and do not put too much money in biotech(of course). And one more thing that makes me ill about competition from Jauvia(Merck’s drug) that is a DPIV inhibitor not exactly the same and does not promote weight loss and not as effective as byetta, but have heard that many Merck reps are calling januvia ‘an oral byetta’ which is untrue….but it is difficult for Amylin to compete or go after every physician that Merck does(or after Merck legally) since Amylin is a much smaller company, and Lilly(who Amylin shares byetta 50/50 with) does not promote byetta that heavily in the U.S. either. Then again, no one expected byetta to do as well as it did thus far and has proven skeptics wrong and short sellers. Finally it is easy to highlight the risk with this stock and future drugs(like any company), but if you dig deep you will find that if any company can find blockbuster potential drugs and bring them to market, it is Amylin, and in my opinion, a pretty good bet! Do your due diligence!

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