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	<title>Comments on: Is Buy and Hold Dead? Performance Update.</title>
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		<title>By: Karl</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2956</link>
		<dc:creator>Karl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:05:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2956</guid>
		<description>Avishek- if you don&#039;t mind a few thoughts to your post from this anonymous guy...

Two parts to your post; 1. determining whether a company has a moat and 2. identifying the type of moat.

1. I&#039;d be wary of relying on for example &quot;Morningstar&#039;s moat assessment&quot;.   Established moat companies have a premium stock market valuation due to such widely accepted dogma as &quot;this company has a moat&quot;.   Investing in say 10 wide moat companies as defined by Morningstar might produce a small gain over the market.

But to significantly outperform the market, that leaves us with picking companies: 

a. hit by short term bad news but with known moats still intact or

b. have unknown moats that we identify before the market does (e.g. small caps, short term high RoE but with high probability to continue this for a decade ).

2.  To perform either a. or b. requires identifying the moat.   You list the sources of the most enduring moats, but to identify those sources yourself requires a little studying.   I&#039;d recommend starting off with Pat Dorsey&#039;s little yellow book and Bruce Greenwald&#039;s Value investing book&#039;s section on why Earnings Power can rise above Asset value to connect the moat with company valuation.

But what is the good of identifying the source of the moat if you don&#039;t know it&#039;s dynamics (declining/ increasing and duration)?    Since buying a high valuation company with a known, but long-term declining, moat will simply strip money from your portfolio.    To know the dynamics of a moat requires studying the moats themselves AND how they relate to your &#039;circle of competence&#039; industries.

(The more you study moats, the more they become termed &quot;competitive advantages&quot; and the further you go into business strategy- strategy&#039;s sole function is to create a moat).   

To further study moats beyond Pat Dorsey&#039;s book, I&#039;d recommend reading some of the articles at CAPatcolumbia.com (esp. &quot;All Strategy is Local&quot; and the RoIC article).   Next Michael Porter&#039;s &quot;Competitive Advantage&quot; and Besanko&#039;s &quot;Economics of Strategy&quot;.    

Also Charlie Munger&#039;s mental models (in his Almanac) that introduce you to moats relating to ecoysystems and small world networks and customer&#039;s cognitive biases.

Finally (perhaps), your study of moats could enter the busines strategy discipline.     To save sanity and keep strategy&#039;s relevance to investment returns, I&#039;d stick with resource-based strategy theory and stuff connecting strategy with shareholder returns (e.g. Alfred Rappaport&#039;s writings).   Mintzberg and Ohmae and other strategy writers are very whimsical from an investor&#039;s perspective.

Moats can rapidly become worthless.      Some intangible assets like patents in certain industries are easily overcome.      Some switching costs like media companies supplying TV and telephone are useless if rivals start paying customers to switch.     Network effects are very enduring but very rare.       Lowest cost is great until the high fixed cost part of your business structure (creating the economies) leaves you rigidly stuck in serving that one type of customer/ creating that one type of product, and diseconomies take hold.   

If the above sounds like too much work at just 3 months reading, well we&#039;re only going to find $1 selling for 50cents (30%  average annual returns) by thinking differently to others, not through following pre-fomulated Morningstar numbers.       And Ben Graham said investing is most intelligent when most business like.      So, studying competitive advantages (Buffett&#039;s moats) will take you far away from the chattering and garbage of the investing world.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Avishek- if you don&#8217;t mind a few thoughts to your post from this anonymous guy&#8230;</p>
<p>Two parts to your post; 1. determining whether a company has a moat and 2. identifying the type of moat.</p>
<p>1. I&#8217;d be wary of relying on for example &#8220;Morningstar&#8217;s moat assessment&#8221;.   Established moat companies have a premium stock market valuation due to such widely accepted dogma as &#8220;this company has a moat&#8221;.   Investing in say 10 wide moat companies as defined by Morningstar might produce a small gain over the market.</p>
<p>But to significantly outperform the market, that leaves us with picking companies: </p>
<p>a. hit by short term bad news but with known moats still intact or</p>
<p>b. have unknown moats that we identify before the market does (e.g. small caps, short term high RoE but with high probability to continue this for a decade ).</p>
<p>2.  To perform either a. or b. requires identifying the moat.   You list the sources of the most enduring moats, but to identify those sources yourself requires a little studying.   I&#8217;d recommend starting off with Pat Dorsey&#8217;s little yellow book and Bruce Greenwald&#8217;s Value investing book&#8217;s section on why Earnings Power can rise above Asset value to connect the moat with company valuation.</p>
<p>But what is the good of identifying the source of the moat if you don&#8217;t know it&#8217;s dynamics (declining/ increasing and duration)?    Since buying a high valuation company with a known, but long-term declining, moat will simply strip money from your portfolio.    To know the dynamics of a moat requires studying the moats themselves AND how they relate to your &#8216;circle of competence&#8217; industries.</p>
<p>(The more you study moats, the more they become termed &#8220;competitive advantages&#8221; and the further you go into business strategy- strategy&#8217;s sole function is to create a moat).   </p>
<p>To further study moats beyond Pat Dorsey&#8217;s book, I&#8217;d recommend reading some of the articles at CAPatcolumbia.com (esp. &#8220;All Strategy is Local&#8221; and the RoIC article).   Next Michael Porter&#8217;s &#8220;Competitive Advantage&#8221; and Besanko&#8217;s &#8220;Economics of Strategy&#8221;.    </p>
<p>Also Charlie Munger&#8217;s mental models (in his Almanac) that introduce you to moats relating to ecoysystems and small world networks and customer&#8217;s cognitive biases.</p>
<p>Finally (perhaps), your study of moats could enter the busines strategy discipline.     To save sanity and keep strategy&#8217;s relevance to investment returns, I&#8217;d stick with resource-based strategy theory and stuff connecting strategy with shareholder returns (e.g. Alfred Rappaport&#8217;s writings).   Mintzberg and Ohmae and other strategy writers are very whimsical from an investor&#8217;s perspective.</p>
<p>Moats can rapidly become worthless.      Some intangible assets like patents in certain industries are easily overcome.      Some switching costs like media companies supplying TV and telephone are useless if rivals start paying customers to switch.     Network effects are very enduring but very rare.       Lowest cost is great until the high fixed cost part of your business structure (creating the economies) leaves you rigidly stuck in serving that one type of customer/ creating that one type of product, and diseconomies take hold.   </p>
<p>If the above sounds like too much work at just 3 months reading, well we&#8217;re only going to find $1 selling for 50cents (30%  average annual returns) by thinking differently to others, not through following pre-fomulated Morningstar numbers.       And Ben Graham said investing is most intelligent when most business like.      So, studying competitive advantages (Buffett&#8217;s moats) will take you far away from the chattering and garbage of the investing world.</p>
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		<title>By: Avishek</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2955</link>
		<dc:creator>Avishek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Aug 2009 10:36:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2955</guid>
		<description>Hi joe,

I just wanted to ask you if depending upon morningstar for numbers is a good idea.I don&#039;t read sec filings and letter to shareholders.similarly, I know we can know if a company has a moat or not by looking at ROA ROE CROIC but I wanted to know what kind of moat it is.intangible asset, switching cost, network effect and low cost are moats but how can we identify it.

Suggestions plz....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi joe,</p>
<p>I just wanted to ask you if depending upon morningstar for numbers is a good idea.I don&#8217;t read sec filings and letter to shareholders.similarly, I know we can know if a company has a moat or not by looking at ROA ROE CROIC but I wanted to know what kind of moat it is.intangible asset, switching cost, network effect and low cost are moats but how can we identify it.</p>
<p>Suggestions plz&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: Casey M</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2947</link>
		<dc:creator>Casey M</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 02:40:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2947</guid>
		<description>G:  You may be all set with regards to your tax question, but if you work for a &quot;larger&quot; company, the 401(k) plan would be good if you get a match, but better would be the Roth 401(k) option if available.   Outside of that, the regular Roth IRA, as BPal mentioned, would be your next best thing.   My problem with using a regular IRA (or non-match 401(k)) is that you will turn capital gain income over time into ordinary income, most likely in a higher tax bracket down the road.  And since you are on the site, you most likely will have a high level of income in your distribution years.  :)  It is nice to be able to defer and reinvest the dividends, but that is only part of the problem. Hopefully our gov&#039;t will change the dividend reinvestment tax laws some day, but that is doubtful under our current administration.  Also, consider liquidity as well.  Yes you can get to those accounts, but you pay a hefty price for taking that money out.  Yes there are exceptions, but they are finite.    Point of post, tax on the dividend is not the only question you should be asking.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>G:  You may be all set with regards to your tax question, but if you work for a &#8220;larger&#8221; company, the 401(k) plan would be good if you get a match, but better would be the Roth 401(k) option if available.   Outside of that, the regular Roth IRA, as BPal mentioned, would be your next best thing.   My problem with using a regular IRA (or non-match 401(k)) is that you will turn capital gain income over time into ordinary income, most likely in a higher tax bracket down the road.  And since you are on the site, you most likely will have a high level of income in your distribution years.  <img src='http://www.fwallstreet.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />   It is nice to be able to defer and reinvest the dividends, but that is only part of the problem. Hopefully our gov&#8217;t will change the dividend reinvestment tax laws some day, but that is doubtful under our current administration.  Also, consider liquidity as well.  Yes you can get to those accounts, but you pay a hefty price for taking that money out.  Yes there are exceptions, but they are finite.    Point of post, tax on the dividend is not the only question you should be asking.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe Ponzio</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2937</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe Ponzio</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:20:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2937</guid>
		<description>&lt;b&gt;George:&lt;/b&gt; I&#039;ll have to dig it up. Give me some time and I&#039;ll post it for you.

&lt;b&gt;Billy Basu:&lt;/b&gt; That&#039;s why I&#039;m pushing for a new term - Business Investing. Of course, there&#039;s no formal investment terminology authority, but there&#039;s still plenty of U.S. bailout money available. Perhaps a market language regulator?

&lt;b&gt;Karl:&lt;/b&gt; The strategy works fine up to, in my opinion, $1 billion or so. Above $1 billion, Workouts become scares. Above $10 billion, you can basically forget about Workouts. If F Wall Street takes you from $x up to $1 billion, let me know and I&#039;ll write F Wall Street 2: Joe Ponzio&#039;s No-Nonsense Approach to Rewarding the Author That Helped You Become a Billionaire &#9786;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>George:</b> I&#8217;ll have to dig it up. Give me some time and I&#8217;ll post it for you.</p>
<p><b>Billy Basu:</b> That&#8217;s why I&#8217;m pushing for a new term &#8211; Business Investing. Of course, there&#8217;s no formal investment terminology authority, but there&#8217;s still plenty of U.S. bailout money available. Perhaps a market language regulator?</p>
<p><b>Karl:</b> The strategy works fine up to, in my opinion, $1 billion or so. Above $1 billion, Workouts become scares. Above $10 billion, you can basically forget about Workouts. If F Wall Street takes you from $x up to $1 billion, let me know and I&#8217;ll write F Wall Street 2: Joe Ponzio&#8217;s No-Nonsense Approach to Rewarding the Author That Helped You Become a Billionaire &#9786;.</p>
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		<title>By: Karl</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2930</link>
		<dc:creator>Karl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 23:41:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2930</guid>
		<description>Looking at Joe&#039;s NAV chart, an immediate thought was &quot;that result is very do-able with $100k across say 8 small caps&quot;... but it&#039;s the blue chip holdings in the portfolio that mark this out as a great performance.

If all businesses (and portfolios) are simply RoIC machines that you try to shovel as much capital/ reinvestment into as possible whilst maintaining high RoIC, then Joe&#039;s portfolio could take in $100 million, surely?

To put this into perspective, my own investments are in such small caps that &#163;7m is about the &#039;headroom&#039; limit before reaching an unwieldy &gt;2% stake in each.   Good RoIC but very limited reinvestment capacity.

Hats off, Joe.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looking at Joe&#8217;s NAV chart, an immediate thought was &#8220;that result is very do-able with $100k across say 8 small caps&#8221;&#8230; but it&#8217;s the blue chip holdings in the portfolio that mark this out as a great performance.</p>
<p>If all businesses (and portfolios) are simply RoIC machines that you try to shovel as much capital/ reinvestment into as possible whilst maintaining high RoIC, then Joe&#8217;s portfolio could take in $100 million, surely?</p>
<p>To put this into perspective, my own investments are in such small caps that &pound;7m is about the &#8216;headroom&#8217; limit before reaching an unwieldy &gt;2% stake in each.   Good RoIC but very limited reinvestment capacity.</p>
<p>Hats off, Joe.</p>
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		<title>By: Billy Basu</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2926</link>
		<dc:creator>Billy Basu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:11:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2926</guid>
		<description>May be &quot;buy and hold&quot; is not the right phrase for the style of investing that we espouse but more towards investing as if we are owners of businesses?Certainly that is what helped me begin my first year with a significant outperformance compared to the global stockmarkets as is now published on my website www.globalstockinvestingtoday.com.

With regards to China,I do not believe that in this century that funds will offer the best returns for the least risk if they do not invest globally since the US economy is unlikely to generate the levels of economic growth that led to such handsome stockmarket returns from 1960 to 1999.

Certainly,my portfolio performance would have been diminished without the returns generated from Asian equities.I am also amazed that the US investment community is so underexposed to Standard Chartered Bank simply because it is not listed in the US but is now Britain&#039;s second largest bank by market value due to nearly all of its business being in Asia and the Middle East.It is my Wells Fargo.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>May be &#8220;buy and hold&#8221; is not the right phrase for the style of investing that we espouse but more towards investing as if we are owners of businesses?Certainly that is what helped me begin my first year with a significant outperformance compared to the global stockmarkets as is now published on my website <a href="http://www.globalstockinvestingtoday.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.globalstockinvestingtoday.com</a>.</p>
<p>With regards to China,I do not believe that in this century that funds will offer the best returns for the least risk if they do not invest globally since the US economy is unlikely to generate the levels of economic growth that led to such handsome stockmarket returns from 1960 to 1999.</p>
<p>Certainly,my portfolio performance would have been diminished without the returns generated from Asian equities.I am also amazed that the US investment community is so underexposed to Standard Chartered Bank simply because it is not listed in the US but is now Britain&#8217;s second largest bank by market value due to nearly all of its business being in Asia and the Middle East.It is my Wells Fargo.</p>
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		<title>By: George</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2910</link>
		<dc:creator>George</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2009 04:37:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2910</guid>
		<description>Hi Joe,

    Read your book. Without a doubt, one of the best and useful books I ever read. Most of the other books beat around the bush and does not provide any specifics. Thank You!!

    Will you be able to share the numbers/workout excel sheets you used while making the investment in NutriSystems? I think it will help to look at a real life example where you made an investment and compare with the calculations I/others have done.

Thanks,

George.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Joe,</p>
<p>    Read your book. Without a doubt, one of the best and useful books I ever read. Most of the other books beat around the bush and does not provide any specifics. Thank You!!</p>
<p>    Will you be able to share the numbers/workout excel sheets you used while making the investment in NutriSystems? I think it will help to look at a real life example where you made an investment and compare with the calculations I/others have done.</p>
<p>Thanks,</p>
<p>George.</p>
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		<title>By: BPal</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2906</link>
		<dc:creator>BPal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Jun 2009 11:15:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2906</guid>
		<description>g:  set up a Roth IRA if you have earned income but don&#039;t make too much money (more than like $75 or $80K I think if you&#039;re single).  All the dividends and cap gains will grow in the account tax free and will be tax free upon withdraw.  You could also set up a traditional IRA but you will pay taxes on the account upon withdrawal and your ordinary income tax rates (but you can deduct the annual investments into the traditional IRA if your employer doesn&#039;t offer a 401(k) plan.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>g:  set up a Roth IRA if you have earned income but don&#8217;t make too much money (more than like $75 or $80K I think if you&#8217;re single).  All the dividends and cap gains will grow in the account tax free and will be tax free upon withdraw.  You could also set up a traditional IRA but you will pay taxes on the account upon withdrawal and your ordinary income tax rates (but you can deduct the annual investments into the traditional IRA if your employer doesn&#8217;t offer a 401(k) plan.)</p>
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		<title>By: g</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2903</link>
		<dc:creator>g</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2009 22:22:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2903</guid>
		<description>Joe or anyone else,

I know very little about US taxes (as this question reveals), but is there a way or some sort of account or fund I can set up, so that I can reinvest dividends without getting taxed on them?

I am 22 years old.  If I can put $5000 in a company that pays a 5% dividend, I receive 250 dollars per year, of which I would have to pay 30% to the gov&#039;t, or $75 in taxes.  If I plan to invest it for the next 43 years (until I&#039;m 65), and I could potentially return 10-15% per year in my investment portfolio, it could  be the difference between an additional 10,000-30,000 down the line.

As of now, I have a bias towards non-dividend paying stocks, but I do like the idea of physically getting money back from the companies I own, so I would like to invest more in dividend-paying companies.  If anyone knows of any way to deal with this issue, please respond...

thanks!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe or anyone else,</p>
<p>I know very little about US taxes (as this question reveals), but is there a way or some sort of account or fund I can set up, so that I can reinvest dividends without getting taxed on them?</p>
<p>I am 22 years old.  If I can put $5000 in a company that pays a 5% dividend, I receive 250 dollars per year, of which I would have to pay 30% to the gov&#8217;t, or $75 in taxes.  If I plan to invest it for the next 43 years (until I&#8217;m 65), and I could potentially return 10-15% per year in my investment portfolio, it could  be the difference between an additional 10,000-30,000 down the line.</p>
<p>As of now, I have a bias towards non-dividend paying stocks, but I do like the idea of physically getting money back from the companies I own, so I would like to invest more in dividend-paying companies.  If anyone knows of any way to deal with this issue, please respond&#8230;</p>
<p>thanks!</p>
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		<title>By: Joe Ponzio</title>
		<link>http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2901</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe Ponzio</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:34:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/186-is-buy-and-hold-dead-performance-update#comment-2901</guid>
		<description>&lt;b&gt;Leon:&lt;/b&gt; I mentioned it in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fwallstreet.com/blog/163.htm&quot; title=&quot;this post&quot;&gt;this post&lt;/a&gt;. I had dumped my position, and then bought it back again in October.

&lt;b&gt;MikeR:&lt;/b&gt; It&#039;s so true. Sad...but true.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>Leon:</b> I mentioned it in <a href="http://www.fwallstreet.com/blog/163.htm" title="this post">this post</a>. I had dumped my position, and then bought it back again in October.</p>
<p><b>MikeR:</b> It&#8217;s so true. Sad&#8230;but true.</p>
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