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Lessons From the Banking Meltdown

September 15, 2008  |  Joe Ponzio

So…Merrill sells to Bank of America, most likely to avoid bankruptcy, Lehman files for bankruptcy, Bear Stearns sells to JP Morgan, again most likely to avoid bankruptcy. Major financial institutions – once revered as the “crown jewels” of the financial community – are failing. And all I can think is…Are you kidding me?!?

Aren’t these supposed to be the greatest financial minds and businesses in the world?

Investing vs. The Business of Investing

The media seems to be soft-shoeing around one issue: These companies are supposed to be in the business of managing money. They preach diversification, conservative values, and “intelligent” investing, and then…

  • they leverage their firms to buy crap investments and
  • assume tons of risk,
  • with absolute disregard for their bosses – the shareholders
  • who have collectively lost hundreds of billions of dollars
  • while the executives have collectively taken home billions of dollars.

They’ve done it time and time again (think dot-com). And these are the people overseeing the financial futures of millions of investors around the world.

There is a massive disconnect between investing and the business of investing. The “brilliant” minds of Wall Street have once again proven that they are good at the business of investing…but they don’t know jack about investing. And once again, Joe and Jane Investor – good people that want to retire comfortably, but realize that they want to focus on anything but investing – get suckered into trusting their money to firms that sell “investing”…but focus on the business of investing.

What is “The Business of Investing”? Making The Case with Mutual Funds.

Many of these large brokerage houses (even if they call themselves Investment Banks) are not in the business of providing growth- and safety-oriented investment advice and portfolio management. They are in the business of selling investments. Any advice they provide is incidental to that end.

How do they make more money? Sell more investments…to more people. The problem – one we’ve discussed a million times here – is that, at any given time, there are only a handful of truly wonderful investment opportunities available (if any). If these companies waited to sell just those great investments, they’d go broke.

There’s very little money to be made recommending our strategy [buy-and-hold].Your broker would starve to death. Recommending something to be held for 30 years is a level of self-sacrifice you’ll rarely see in a monastery, let alone a brokerage house. – Warren Buffett

(And, of course, that’s why F Wall Street’s headline reads: If Wall Street told you how to invest properly, they’d be out of business.)

How do they sell investments? On the one hand, they are investment banks – raising money for companies through IPOs, secondary offerings, bond issuances, and more. On the other hand, they strong-arm mutual funds to churn garbage in Joe and Jane Investor’s portfolios.

The Basics of Mutual Funds

To best understand this, you must first understand the business of mutual funds. A mutual fund is a pool of investor money used to buy, hold, and sell stocks, bonds, or other securities. When you buy shares of a mutual fund, the mutual fund manager gets the cash and invests it according to “the Plan” outlined in the prospectus.

(For readers with a more in-depth understanding of mutual funds, I am talking about open-ended funds – the type that Wall Street will typically sell to Joe and Jane Investor, through their IRAs, 401(k) plans, and other accounts.)

Mutual funds are run by mutual fund companies – businesses that make money based on how much of Joe and Jane’s money are in the mutual funds, regardless of how intelligently that money is invested or how it performs. All things being equal, a mutual fund company with $1 billion in assets will make ten times more money than a mutual fund company with $100 million in assets.

Get more assets…make more money.

The Whys and Hows of Mutual Fund Strong-Arming

The major Wall Street firms control the assets. Mutual fund companies (read: the executives) make money based on how much money they manage. What do you think a mutual fund company would do to get in bed with Wall Street? Quarterly kickbacks? Pay some of the Wall Street firm’s expenses? Perhaps buy some garbage investments from the Wall Street firms that have to sell mediocre and bad investments to make more money?

Try “all of the above” and then some. (You didn’t know you could find this information? Sure! It’s comfortably buried on page 212 of the Statement of Information filed with the SEC. They didn’t tell you about that? Hmmmm.) It’s a match made in heaven – mutual fund companies earn higher fees on more assets under management, Wall Street gets a vehicle that will (i) engage in a high number of transactions that will generate commissions, and (ii) buy shoddy investments and hide them among their hundreds or thousands of other positions.

It’s a dirty business, and everybody wins but the mutual fund investor.

Are All Mutual Funds Bad?

No. According to the 2008 Investment Company Fact Book issued by the Investment Company Institute, there were 8,752 mutual funds operating in 2007, some of which don’t engage in Wall Street’s tomfoolery. Of course, you’ll likely never hear of them because they focus on growing and preserving wealth – not on getting their name in the news or climbing into bed with Wall Street.

Today’s Credit Crisis

So focused on the business of selling investments, these grand old investment firms forgot some of the most basic rules of investing; so, let’s review them here:

  • never invest in something you don’t understand. (If you lose everything and go bankrupt – or sell your firm to stave off bankruptcy – you clearly did not understand what you were investing in.)
  • avoid permanent loss. (Recognize that some investments will go bad and manage your portfolio to prevent a total loss of the entire portfolio, even if some investments result in losses.)
  • figure out the strength of the floor before you salivate at the look of the ceiling. (Know what is at risk before you drool over potential profits. The Sistine Chapel is beautiful; but, having to jump over a 40-foot-wide black hole to sneak a peek may not make it worth viewing.)
  • focus on intrinsic value. (The value of every opportunity lies entirely in the future, regardless of the past. Just because big bets on bad debt worked in the past does not mean they will continue to work in the future. You have to figure out the value of those bets – not just the price and profit potential.)
  • the company you run belongs to your shareholders. (Don’t focus on how big or “savvy” you are. Focus on what is in the best interests of your shareholders. In case you missed the memo: Putting your business at risk of bankruptcy is not in the best interests of your shareholders.)

The list goes on and on.

Attention Joe and Jane Investor – Here’s What To Do.

First off, go ahead and make a run on your banks. If you have money with a brokerage firm or bank that is in trouble, get your money the heck out of there! Over the weekend, I spoke to a number of friends and family with savings and checking accounts at Midwest Bank (MBHI) – a well-known local bank – that appears to have lost roughly 1/3 of its equity after its bets on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went south.

Should you risk your savings because your banker took too much risk?

In reality, I don’t want to cause a run on the banks; but, I won’t prevent one by saying that everything is fine and that you should wait until it is too late. My recommendation: Move your important savings and checking accounts to banks that have a higher likelihood of weathering the storm. US Bank gets my vote of confidence for checking and savings accounts.

If you have more than $100,000 at the bank… Open a brokerage account and get unlimited insurance on your account. Companies like TD Ameritrade (AMTD) will take out 3rd-party insurance on your account so that, if they fail, your assets are safe. (Compare that to having $500,000 at a bank that fails, leaving you with just $100,000 of FDIC reimbursement.)

You can easily transfer money back and forth electronically between US Bank and TD Ameritrade; so, you don’t have to worry about locking up your funds. (Yes – brokerage accounts can act just like savings accounts, and you can even buy CDs.)

Sell your garbage mutual funds. You are better off in cash than in bad investments. I’d be quite angry at my mutual fund managers if they held Lehman, or had big bets on Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Kind of like some of these guys:

$11.5 billion of Joe and Jane Investor’s money…now worth just $3.9 billion assuming these giants still held these positions. (Funny how familiar some of the names are, too. I wonder if these guys were in bed with Wall Street? What else might drive them to hold $11.5 billion in these risky bets? 8,752 mutual funds out there, and the same names keep popping up. Hmmm.)

At the very least, this is a start to protecting what you have.

Remember: Cash Is King

If you’ve learned nothing else from this credit crisis, you should walk away with two lessons:

  1. Most investment firms are in the business of selling investments, not in the business of investing for growth and safety; and,
  2. Each firm is failing because they don’t have enough cash to pay the bills and keep the doors open.

When it comes down to it, the value of a business is the value of the cash that the business can generate throughout its remaining life. When a business can’t generate enough cash to keep operations going, it must sell to another firm, borrow money, issue shares, or close up shop. (That’s why these financial giants keep looking for and raising billions in capital to offset losses.)

Focus first on preserving your savings. Then, take steps to grow it. Don’t be a mutual fund pawn in Wall Street’s game of ever-increasing sales. Instead, look for individual businesses than can generate excess cash, and have a high probability of doing so in the future.

As we’re seeing today, no business can survive forever without the ability to generate excess cash. Then again, no business ever failed because it generated too much cash.

If the 300 point drops in the Dow make you sick to your stomach, perhaps it’s time to change your strategy.

Joe Ponzio

By Joe Ponzio

September 15, 2008

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The Discussion
Dan
Dan
September 15, 2008 at 3:10pm

Absolutely, 100% right on the mark!!

Excellent!

Dan

Amit.D
Amit.D
September 15, 2008 at 3:11pm

It makes me sick too…I’m always bothered by this “business of selling investments”. Thanks for thinking about us and righting an insightful post!

G SAM
G SAM
September 15, 2008 at 3:57pm

Alright then,

Today is in the books though. If i can garner any hope after so much confidence has been lost, it is from the fact that the businesses we invest in are the same companys they were yesterday. While the mutual funds fail and I watch as all the liquid funds they had invested dissapear, I still know my money is invested in companys that have proven themselves through intrinsic value.

Joe, Is this an opportunity to jump on some of the big Lehman holdings? Will GE, Linn Energy LLC, UBS, and Pfizer be attractive offers? Or be avoided like plague?

September 15, 2008 at 4:02pm

G SAM,

Great businesses selling at a discount to intrinsic value will always be attractive — even if it takes a few years for the markets to shake out these fears and begin to recognize the values.

Eliot Murray
Eliot Murray
September 15, 2008 at 4:42pm

Joe,

Profound. I’ve been reading headlines all day and I never made the connection you did about the fact that these are the companies that are supposed to know what the heck to do with money. They are giving us advice on investments, while going bankrupt themselves. Thanks for pointing that out.

Michael
Michael
September 15, 2008 at 6:09pm

Excellent post!

Great points about these firms not being able to manage their own money, but they want us to let them manage our money. They leveraged up their balance sheet to 30 plus times equity and then invested in risky investments. This is the fallout for taking on large amount of risk. None of them were asking the Fed to help them spread the profits during the good years, so I don’t think they can get mad at the Fed for not bailing them out now.

I’m going to keep looking for companies that are selling below intrinsic values. Keep up the good work Joe.

cory
cory
September 15, 2008 at 6:35pm

Joe, you’re a fantastic teacher.

Thank you for dropping out of premed to pursue teaching!

By the way, there is an amazing book about a teacher named Marva Collins called Marva Collins’ Way. It is one of the most important books I’ve read. If you send me an address I’d be happy to send you a copy.

Matt
Matt
September 15, 2008 at 7:40pm

What do you guys think about risk-arbitrage on MER and BAC? I feel like this is a deal regulators are going to make sure happens, and there’s a pretty wide spread right now.

Rene
Rene
September 15, 2008 at 11:30pm

My kids are now in their early and mid twenties. Every once in a while they tease me with the following, “hey Dad, it’s been almost a week since you last told us never, ever, ever to invest in the stock market through a mutual fund…” They know to either get competent at picking individual stocks, which so far they are unwilling to do, or to buy un-managed, ultra cheap fee, index funds that track a major index such as the S&P 500 (S&P 498 as of today I guess) in a cost averaging tax exempt account. I also told them to set an email alert for their birthdays in 2029 and 2031 respectively to start the gradual shift to bond funds…

Miguelbarbosa
Miguelbarbosa
September 15, 2008 at 11:59pm

Hey Joe.

Good seeing you at the conference. Just got back from Chicago. Quick question, what do you think of Vanguard, are they likely to be in trouble?

Miguel

I’ll be posting the pics and notes to the meeting tomorrow. Take care.

Bill
Bill
September 16, 2008 at 9:35am

Joe-

I’m wondering how you would value GE right now? Looks like it’s at a 5-year low at this point. I’m assuming that much of the recent damage to its price is due to the financial arm, but GE has been among the most solid companies in the world over the years, and I’m getting an attractive intrinsic value. My confidence is tempered by not having a good grasp on how to adjust that number to account for the financial arm. Or is this one of those situations where it’s too hard to separate things, and better to stay away?

As usual, loving the insights and can’t wait for the book!

- Bill

Gopinath
Gopinath
September 16, 2008 at 10:22am

Yep, they(Wall street investment banks) did it again! They will probably do it again!

Joe, you are a very good teacher! I really appreciate your work towards educating fellow investors like me.

Gopi

Mark
Mark
September 16, 2008 at 2:45pm

Is LNY still in the f wall street portfolio? Seems like a good opportunity now to buy more. Have you increased the position?

September 16, 2008 at 7:42pm

Thanks all for the kind comments!

cory: I’m just happy to have found my calling, whether it was in investing, medicine, teaching… I never ask for gifts; but, some people have insisted and been very generous with books. I’d love to read the book. You can find my office address here. Thanks!

Matt: I haven’t looked too closely at the BAC/MER deal yet. Because Merrill is so toxic right now, I don’t know if I’ll ever jump on that one.

Miguel: It was great finally meeting you. (All: If you are looking for a great blog on investor psychology, coupled with about a billion and a half links to other investing blogs, check out Miguel’s Simoleon Sense.)

Bill: I like GE, but I don’t feel like it’s at a big enough Margin of Safety to offer the kinds of returns I want.

Mark: I mentioned in this comment that I have increased the F Wall Street position back up to 20%. I had also said (in that comment):

The price action means nothing without a SEC filing or news release. We went through this with RTSX — and will see it a ton on these small deals. In RTSX, the price dropped from $30 to $25, or nearly 17%, in the weeks leading up to the shareholder meeting.

Unless and until I get real news that is or has to be filed with the SEC, I don’t see any change in the deal outside of the widening of the premium.

(MikeR)
(MikeR)
September 20, 2008 at 5:23pm

LNY CEO has been taking advantage of the pull back to acquire stock.

http://tinyurl.com/3hj69r...

September 22, 2008 at 10:19pm

Very interesting. Why would he add so much to his position if he didn’t see value at those low prices?

Some workouts go bad, but I’m not moving out of LNY until it goes bad…regardless of the price action right now.

September 22, 2008 at 10:21pm

Miguel: I forgot to answer your Vanguard question. No — I don’t think they’re in trouble. The real peril lies in holding index funds when companies like GM are in the index!

Pete Koch
Pete Koch
September 25, 2008 at 12:19pm

The best book I have ever read on the subject of the games Wall Street plays is ‘Unconventional Success’ by David Swensen, who runs money for the Yale University endowment.

In his book, Swensen lays out numerous techniques Da Boyz use to separate an investor from his money.

My favorite was a Morgan Stanley Index Fund, set up to track the S&P 500. Once established, no active management is required in the portfolio unless S&P adds/removes stocks which make up the index, right? Yet Morgan charged investors a 5.25% load in addition to 12-b and other fees. Compare this to Vanguard’s S&P500 tracker, which charges a paltry 0.09% in fees. Somehow, Morgan managed to sell this fund to the fish/sheep. Lots more amazing examples.

After reading Swensen, a sane person would either manage his own portfolio, invest in an Index Fund or three, or hide his money under the mattress. Swensen tells what to look for in an investment manager, but only mentions one name (Southeastern/Longleaf), although I can think of others (like Pabrai) who would qualify.

September 26, 2008 at 10:28am

I think the biggest problem with highly sophisticated investors — when recommending funds to the public — is that they dumb people down too much. Many gurus (Buffett included) say that people should dollar cost average (DCA) into index funds if they don’t intelligently invest in stocks.

The Case For Index Funds

For a lot of people that really have no understanding of mutual funds, managers, fees, etc., DCA into an index fund is better than nothing and most certainly better than taking a bath from the goofs on Wall Street. If you are totally clueless and you can’t find a good money manager — either a good fund, if doing it on your own, or a good advisor, if you are hiring one — you should consider splitting your money between index funds and CDs.

The Case Against Index Funds

In 2007, there were 8,752 mutual funds registered in the United States. Most can not beat the markets for whatever reason. But just because most can’t beat the markets does not mean that we should draw the conclusion that all can’t beat the markets. Many advisors don’t understand this because their world of mutual funds is limited to what their firms allow them to sell.

Joe and Jane American that aren’t going to buy pieces of individual businesses on their own can still do very well in mutual funds — just not in most mutual funds. To find great funds, though, requires about as much research as finding great companies. If you have the time and desire to do that kind of research, you should at least consider managing your own portfolio of equities.

BPal
BPal
September 30, 2008 at 9:44am

Joe – does your brokerage account charge for unlimited insurance on your cash holdings? I’m not too familiar with that option, but another option is to deposit your cash in excess of $100,000 in a bank that participates in CDARS – a network of banks that spread your money into CDs less than $100,000 across each bank, to ensure that the entire amount is insured by the FDIC. You get one statement and negotiate one rate of return.

Tim2
Tim2
October 3, 2008 at 6:26pm

Here is a tongue in cheek 4 step guide to the banking meltdown. It’s funny in a disturbing truthful way…

http://www.stuff.co.nz/47...

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